Corn/Maize (ZC) - Real-Time Prices

Sub-Saharan Africa Maize Production & Trade

Maize (corn) is Sub-Saharan Africa's most important staple crop, accounting for 50% of caloric intake in Eastern and Southern Africa. The region produces 70 million metric tons annually but faces chronic deficits in drought years. Regional trade is critical - South Africa, Tanzania, and Zambia export to deficit countries during surplus years.

Major Producers & Traders (2024)

• South Africa: 15.5 million MT/year - Largest producer, exports 2-3 million MT to SADC region
• Nigeria: 12.8 million MT/year - Largest in West Africa, focuses on domestic consumption
• Tanzania: 7.2 million MT/year - Major regional exporter to Kenya, Uganda, DRC
• Kenya: 3.6 million MT production, 1-2 million MT imports in deficit years
• Zambia: 3.8 million MT/year - Key regional exporter, surplus production
• Zimbabwe: 2.4 million MT in good years, 1.5 million MT in drought years (imports spike)
• Malawi: 4.2 million MT/year - Self-sufficient, occasional exports
• Uganda: 3.1 million MT/year - Growing production, reducing imports

Regional Trade Dynamics

Price Drivers

• Weather Patterns: La Niña (favorable) vs El Niño (drought) cycles dominate African production
• Regional Harvest Timing: South Africa (April-June), East Africa (bimodal: Mar-May, Oct-Dec)
• Export Restrictions: Tanzania, Zambia periodically ban exports to ensure domestic food security
• Global Corn Prices: US Midwest weather, Brazilian production, Chinese demand affect baseline prices
• Currency Fluctuations: South African Rand, Kenyan Shilling movements affect regional trade
• Biofuel Demand: US ethanol production competes with food use (30-40% of US corn to ethanol)

Volatility Profile

Exporting Maize from Southern Africa

South Africa Export Requirements

• ✓ Registration with South African Grain Information Service (SAGIS)
• ✓ Phytosanitary certificate from Department of Agriculture, Land Reform & Rural Development
• ✓ GMO declaration (South Africa allows GMO maize - critical for export destinations)
• ✓ Quality certificate from South African Grain Laboratory (SAGL)
• ✓ Export levy: R4.15 per ton (approx $0.23/MT)
• ✓ Certificate of origin for SADC preferential trade
• ✓ No export permits required (liberalized market)

Tanzania Export Requirements

• ✓ Export permit from Ministry of Agriculture (issued when domestic supply secure)
• ✓ Phytosanitary certificate from Tanzania Plant Health & Pesticides Authority
• ✓ Certificate of origin
• ✓ Quality inspection certificate
• ✓ Export cess: 5% of FOB value (periodically waived)
• ⚠️ Export bans common during domestic shortages (monitor government announcements)

Zambia Export Requirements

• ✓ Export permit from Zambia Agriculture Commodities Agency (ZACA)
• ✓ Issued only after domestic reserve threshold met (500,000 MT)
• ✓ Phytosanitary certificate from Plant Quarantine & Phytosanitary Service
• ✓ Export levy: 0% (within COMESA), 10% (outside COMESA - often suspended)
• ⚠️ Frequent policy changes - verify current regulations before contracting

Importing Maize

Kenya

• ✓ Import permit from Ministry of Agriculture (automatic when domestic prices high)
• ✓ Phytosanitary certificate from exporting country
• ✓ GMO-free certificate (Kenya bans GMO maize imports)
• ✓ Aflatoxin test certificate (max 10 ppb)
• ✓ Import duty: 50% (standard) or 10% (duty remission during shortages)
• ✓ VAT: 16%
• ✓ Railway Development Levy: 1.5%

Zimbabwe

• ✓ Import permit from Grain Marketing Board (GMB)
• ✓ Phytosanitary certificate
• ✓ GMO declaration required
• ✓ Import duty: 0% (SADC countries), 40% (outside SADC)
• ✓ VAT: 15%
• ✓ Foreign currency allocation required (forex controls in place)

Quality Standards

• HS Code: 1005.90 (Maize, other than seed corn)
• Moisture Content: Maximum 13.5% (12.5% preferred for long-term storage)
• Aflatoxin: Maximum 10 ppb (parts per billion) - critical safety standard
• Test Weight: Minimum 70 kg/hectoliter (quality indicator)
• Foreign Matter: Maximum 2%
• Broken Kernels: Maximum 5%
• GMO Status: Must be declared (Kenya, Zambia ban GMO; SA, Tanzania allow)

Regional Transport Modes

• Road Transport: Primary mode for intra-SADC and EAC trade (30-ton trucks)
• Rail: South Africa to Zimbabwe/Zambia (cheaper but slower, infrastructure constraints)
• Bulk Vessels: International imports (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico) via Mombasa, Dar es Salaam, Durban
• Container: 20-foot containers (25 MT capacity) for smaller regional shipments
• Packaging: 50kg polypropylene bags (regional standard) or bulk
• Fumigation: Required for cross-border shipments (phosphine treatment)

Typical Freight Costs

Border Crossing Challenges

• Beitbridge (South Africa-Zimbabwe): 12-48 hour delays common, use clearing agents
• Chirundu (Zambia-Zimbabwe): One Stop Border Post (OSBP) reduces delays to 4-8 hours
• Namanga (Kenya-Tanzania): OSBP operational, 3-6 hour clearance
• Malaba (Uganda-Kenya): OSBP, but congestion causes 6-12 hour delays
• Documentation: Ensure all permits, phytosanitary certs, CMR/consignment notes are complete
• Bridge Fees: $30-80 per truck at border crossings

Storage & Quality Preservation

• Moisture Management: Critical - maize above 13.5% moisture develops aflatoxin rapidly
• Hermetic Storage: PICS bags or metal silos for smallholder-sourced maize
• Fumigation Schedule: Every 3 months for weevil control
• Temperature Monitoring: Prevent hot spots that cause spoilage
• Storage Costs: $2-4 per MT per month (commercial warehouses)

Note: Freight costs vary seasonally (higher during harvest when trucks are scarce). Costs exclude border fees, storage, bagging ($8-12/MT), and aflatoxin testing ($50-100 per sample).