Wheat (ZW) - Real-Time Prices

Sub-Saharan Africa Wheat Production & Trade

Sub-Saharan Africa is a net wheat importer, producing only 12-15% of its consumption needs. The region imports over 45 million metric tons annually, making it a critical market for global wheat traders. Climate constraints limit production to South Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Zimbabwe.

Major Producers & Importers (2024)

• South Africa: 2.1 million MT/year - Largest producer, still imports 1.5 million MT
• Ethiopia: 5.2 million MT/year - Growing production, self-sufficient in highlands
• Kenya: 400,000 MT production, 2.5 million MT imports - 85% import dependency
• Zimbabwe: 350,000 MT production, chronic food insecurity drives imports
• Nigeria: 100,000 MT production, 5.5 million MT imports - Africa's largest wheat importer
• Tanzania: 125,000 MT production, 1.8 million MT imports

Food Security Context

Price Drivers

• Global Supply Shocks: Droughts in major exporters (Australia, Argentina, Russia) impact prices
• Weather Patterns: US winter wheat plantings, spring wheat conditions
• Export Restrictions: India, Russia periodic export bans during shortages
• Currency Fluctuations: Strong USD increases import costs for African buyers
• Freight Costs: Bulk shipping rates from Black Sea, Gulf of Mexico impact delivered prices

Volatility Profile

Exporting Wheat from South Africa

South Africa is the only significant wheat exporter in Sub-Saharan Africa, primarily to neighboring SADC countries.

South Africa Export Requirements

• ✓ Registration with South African Grain Information Service (SAGIS)
• ✓ Phytosanitary certificate from Department of Agriculture
• ✓ Certificate of origin for preferential trade agreements (SADC, SACU)
• ✓ Quality certificate from South African Grain Laboratory (SAGL)
• ✓ Export levy: R3.50 per ton (approx $0.20/MT)
• ✓ No export permits required (liberalized market)

Importing Wheat to East Africa

Kenya

• ✓ Import Declaration Form (IDF) through iTax system
• ✓ Phytosanitary certificate from exporting country
• ✓ Certificate of Conformity (CoC) - SGS, Intertek, or Bureau Veritas
• ✓ Import duty: 10% (EAC common external tariff) or 35% (outside quota)
• ✓ VAT: 16% on CIF value + duty
• ✓ Railway Development Levy: 1.5%
• ✓ Import Declaration Fee: 2.25% (max KES 50,000)

Tanzania

• ✓ Pre-Shipment Verification of Conformity (PVoC) - Intertek or SGS
• ✓ Import permit from Tanzania Food and Drugs Authority (TFDA)
• ✓ Phytosanitary certificate
• ✓ Import duty: 10% (EAC tariff) or 25% (outside quota)
• ✓ VAT: 18%
• ✓ Clearing agent fees: 1.5-2.5% of CIF value

Nigeria

• ✓ Form M (Import License) from Central Bank of Nigeria
• ✓ SONCAP certificate (Standards Organisation of Nigeria Conformity Assessment Programme)
• ✓ Phytosanitary certificate
• ✓ Import duty: 5% (within quota) or 15% (above quota)
• ✓ VAT: 7.5%
• ✓ ECOWAS Trade Liberalization Scheme (ETLS) eligible for regional imports

Quality Standards

• HS Code: 1001.99 (Wheat, other than durum wheat, not for sowing)
• Protein Content: Minimum 11-13% for bread wheat (varies by destination)
• Moisture Content: Maximum 13.5% for safe storage
• Test Weight: Minimum 76 kg/hectoliter (good quality)
• Falling Number: 250-300 seconds (measures sprouting damage)
• Foreign Matter: Maximum 2%

Bulk Shipping Requirements

• Vessel Type: Panamax (50,000-80,000 DWT) or Handysize (20,000-40,000 DWT) for African ports
• Container Option: 20-foot containers (27 MT capacity) for smaller shipments
• Packaging: Bulk (loose in holds) or 50kg polypropylene bags
• Fumigation: Required for most destinations (phosphine treatment)
• Temperature Control: Monitor for condensation during transit (causes spoilage)
• Insurance: All-risk cargo insurance (0.3-0.5% of CIF value)

Typical Freight Costs (Bulk)

Port Discharge Considerations

• Mombasa Port: 4-7 days discharge time, storage at Grain Bulk Handlers Ltd
• Dar es Salaam Port: 5-9 days discharge, chronic congestion issues
• Lagos Apapa Port: 7-14 days discharge, use bonded warehouses to avoid delays
• Durban Port: 3-5 days discharge, most efficient in region
• Discharge Costs: $8-15 per MT (varies by port efficiency)

Note: Freight costs fluctuate based on fuel prices, vessel availability, and seasonal demand. Costs exclude port handling ($8-15/MT), customs clearance ($200-500 per shipment), and inland transport.